What happens if you simulate the different outcomes of the war in Iran?
Since the beginning of the US-Israel war with Iran, people have been asking whether Donald Trump will launch a ground invasion.
Roughly 10,000 additional US troops have now arrived in the Middle East, giving President Trump options ranging from an invasion of Kharg Island to an elaborate special forces operations to seize Iran’s so-called ‘nuclear dust’.
For years, the Pentagon has simulated war games to try and plan for what might happen if the US went to war with Iran.
Our guest, Ilan Goldenberg, was in the room during the Obama years, taking part in the games. He is a former White House Iran advisor.
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00:00 Introduction
01:00 What is wargaming?
02:35 How does a conflict between Iran and the US start?
08:51 What happens if Trump takes Kharg Island?
10:43 What happens if Trump puts forces on the ground in Iran?
14:45 What happens if there is a full scale invasion of Iran?
17:55 What happens when there’s a regime change?
20:01 How do you de-escalate the war in Iran?
24:48 What will be the outcome in Iran?